14th International Probabilistic Workshop by Robby Caspeele, Luc Taerwe, Dirk Proske

By Robby Caspeele, Luc Taerwe, Dirk Proske

This publication offers the court cases of the 14th overseas Probabilistic Workshop that used to be held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic tools are at present of an important significance for learn and advancements within the box of engineering, which face demanding situations provided through new fabrics and applied sciences and swiftly altering societal wishes and values. modern wishes with regards to, for instance, performance-based layout, service-life layout, life-cycle research, product optimization, evaluate of latest buildings and structural robustness supply upward thrust to new advancements in addition to actual and virtually acceptable probabilistic and statistical engineering how to aid those advancements. those complaints are a worthy source for somebody attracted to modern advancements within the box of probabilistic engineering applications.

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Proc. POAC’15. Trondheim, Norway, 14–18 June 2015 Part II Structural Reliability Methods and Statistical Approaches Extrapolation, Invariance, Geometry and Subset Sampling K. Breitung Abstract In the last years the subset sampling method has often been used in reliability problems as a tool for calculating very small probabilities. The method extrapolates from an initial Monte Carlo estimate for the probability content of a failure domain found by a suitable higher level of the original limit state function.

The release of radiologically contaminated air to the environment was the only solution to lower the pressure in the reactors. With respect to flooding, the power plant was not designed for extreme floods based on the historic data. Figure 4 shows the source locations of tsunamis on the East coast around the plant from 1900 to the day of the accident. In total, 101 events are recorded at the National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA 2016). The events are here classified according to their location with respect to a power plant in Location A (south of Fukushima), Location B (proximity of Fukushima), and Location C (north of Fukushima).

1007/978-3-319-47886-9_4 45 46 M. Šmídová and M. Vořechovský the problem, it is often impossible to solve it analytically (even when the inputs have a given joint probability distribution function). Therefore, a sampling strategy is used in which a certain number of structural performance simulations are performed (Lemaire 2009) and the subsequent statistical analysis of the results approximates the evaluation of the integrals corresponding to the quantities in question. The simulations are frequently performed according to a prearranged design plan.

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